SMM December 4:
Overnight, LME lead opened higher at $1,999/mt. During the Asian session, it fluctuated upward slightly above the daily average line before briefly pulling back. Entering the European session, due to increased positions by bulls, LME lead fluctuated considerably, reaching a high of $2,010/mt. Towards the end of the session, it continued to weaken, falling to a low of $1,995/mt, and finally closed at $1,998.5/mt, up $5/mt, a gain of 0.25%. It recorded a small bearish candlestick.
Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2601 contract opened at 17,240 yuan/mt. At the beginning of the session, due to position reduction by bulls, SHFE lead plummeted straight to 17,120 yuan/mt. It then found support at the 10-day moving average, leading to a slight compensatory rise. It moved sideways until the end of the session, finally closing at 17,135 yuan/mt, down 50 yuan/mt, a loss of 0.44%. It formed a small bearish candlestick with a flat top.
Raw material side, as the supply gap for lead concentrates persists, TCs negotiations remain deadlocked. Meanwhile, in the waste lead-acid battery market, prices show signs of rebounding due to a decline in recycling volume, resulting in strong cost support currently. Supply side, primary lead and secondary lead smelters still face maintenance and production halts, with production expected to decline in December. Demand side, downstream battery producers' purchasing enthusiasm for lead ingots has increased due to fears of future price rises. At this stage, there are many positive factors for lead prices, but attention is still needed on the appreciation of the yuan and the potential suppression of price gains from overseas lead ingots flowing into the domestic market if the import window opens after lead prices rebound.
Data source statement: Data other than public information is processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database model, for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.
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